6 June 2024 Export Comments

Corn is a bit ahead; Soybeans behind.

Figure 1: Corn Exports as of 6 June 2024 report, expressed as percentage of the current year WASDE export estimate. Gray area is max/min of most recent 20 years. Dark gray area is 25th - 75th percentile.

Thursday afternoon export figures indicate that corn sales remain on pace to finish up the year by meeting the USDA’s (May) export estimate of 2,150 million bushels, however shipments remain somewhat behind the pace we’d expect for that level of commitments. As of now, commitments are at 93.9%, compared to an average for this time of year of 92.4%, which is a difference of 35m bushels ahead of pace.

Figure 2: Corn Export Commitments as of 6 June 2024 report, expressed as percentage of the current year WASDE export estimate. Gray area is max/min of most recent 20 years. Dark gray is 25th and 75th percentile.

From figure 1, shipment pace is a bit slow, leaving outstanding bushels a bit high (both outside of the 25th/75th percentile band) but these are relatively small deviations, and I think point to exports remaining unchanged in next week’s WASDE report.

Soybeans