Old Crop Export Progress: 5 June 2025

Are we seeing signs of weakness?

Total booked sales for old crop remain ahead of the historical pace needed to hit the 2.6 billion bushels forecast in the May WASDE—in fact only 36.4 million more bushels of sales are needed to hit the WASDE number over the remaining 11 weeks. In fact, the pace that sales are being booked implies that export estimates should be closer to 2.75 billion bushels. This all depends on whether those bushels will actually get shipped.

We know that the Brazilian safrihna crop is going to be large and harvest starts this month. While much less common in corn, in soy, big harvests can lead to changes in origin of supply contracts, and therefore cancellation of US exports. The first canary in the coal mine has started coughing, and you can see why by comparing the pace of commitments (above) to outstanding shipments (below).