If you are wondering how new crop exports are looking so far with all of the ups and downs in tariffs, here is your update through the week of 22 May 2025. Looking at the graphs above, the dotted lines are max/min pace for last 20 years. The dashed lines are 25th percentile & 75th percentile pace. The red line is pace as of 22 May, the most recent data available. The US has typically contracted 8.6% of our eventual total soybean volume at this point in the year, we are currently at 2.1%. Only about 5 of the past 20 years have been slower. Corn we are 4.4% instead of 7.3%, while we are behind the average pace, we are ahead of the median pace--about 2/3 of the last 20 years were slower than this year.
What's the takeaway? New crop beans are almost certainly seeing some effects, but it's much too early to know how it's all going to play out. Meanwhile, corn is actually being booked at a pretty normal pace.
The charts above are static images, the charts below are updated each week and you can mouse-over to see the current values: