New Crop Export Comments 5 Jun 2025

Don't cross the beams...

New crop corn sales are looking solid so far this year, as long as you understand the difference between the average and the median. Each week, I calculate export commitments as a percent of the latest WASDE export estimate. This allows us to examine the to-date pace of exports in the graph above. The dotted lines represent the fastest and slowest pace over the past 20 years while the darker areas are the 25th and 75th percentile.

Based on the current percent committed and the historical pace, we can calculate to what extent we are ahead or behind on pace. Looking at new crop corn above, we have contracted 4.7% of total USDA estimated exports this week, compared to an average of 7.5%, which puts us pretty far behind. With data, it’s critical to remember that one single statistic rarely tells the whole story, which is why I include the 25th and 75th percentiles. Even though the pace of sales is behind the average by a huge amount for this time of year, it’s still faster than most years, i.e. it is faster than the median. Plus, it’s still really early. Right now, in other words, I’m much happier with corn than soybeans.